· law and order · 2 min read
How can the war in Ukraine end?
Prediction of the possible outcomes.
0.5% Russian victory
Could Russia unleash a new superweapon? A surprise offensive? Will Ukrainian defenses collapse? All extremely unlikely. The battlefield is locked. Ukraine has excellent intelligence on Russian movements. Huge civilian casualties have built strong resolve in Ukrainians. Four years ago, many might have surrendered. Not anymore.
10% Ukrainian victory
Ukraine seems to be pulling ahead in drone technology. Russia’s casualties are growing year after year. It needs new soldiers, but more drafts could trigger a major backlash and chaos. Yet, history shows that, in the vastness of Russia, there are always a few more unfortunate souls for the meat grinder.
0% Peace treaty negotiated between Putin and Zelensky
Putin is scared for his life. Ending the war in any way other than victory would put him in more danger. He won’t risk that. He can’t spin the current situation as a victory, and he knows it. His talk of diplomacy is just stalling. On the other side, is there anything that could push Zelensky to sign a weak deal? With Putin? I don’t think so.
4% Peace treaty after Zelensky is ‘gone’
It’s theoretically possible that a new Ukrainian president would agree to some deal with Putin. It would be a worthless piece of paper—torn up as soon as it becomes inconvenient for Russia. It could temporarily pause the war, though.
85.5% Peace treaty after Putin is ‘gone’
It might not happen straight away. It will be fragile and uneasy unless Russia’s regime gets reformed. Still, it’s by far the most likely outcome. This war can’t go on for ever. The longer Russians tolerate Putin, the longer will both countries suffer.
These percentages were calculated by a leading World Model™️ guessed from the hip by yours truly. Did I get it all wrong?
